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Thursday, September 24, 2009

Tips for Successful Stock Market Trading


How-To Tips for Successful Stock Market Trading


Best Stock Market Investment: How To Choose Investments That Pay Off
Some financial experts say that engaging into the more lucrative but challenging world of investments is not for the faint of heart.
With the economy seemingly riding on a roller-coaster, investing in the right stock at the right time seems to be next to impossible. However, with the advent of information technology, people all over the world are going crazy over stock market investmenting. This is because the convenience of information technology has found its place in the world of investments.
If you are one who is looking to get into the world of stock market investing, here are a few pieces of advice you might want to heed:
1. The stock market is risky business
Generally, most people believe that buying stocks are as easy as 1-2-3. Of course, it can and in fact anybody is capable of doing it. But the problem lies on the fact that few people know when to sell. And that is, in its greatest sense, the heart of stock market. So, the best advice for people to get the best stock market investment, it is best not to gamble everything that they have on it, especially if they donít have a good understanding of how it works. It’s better to loose a little than loose really, really big.
2. The "trailing stop strategy."
Most experts incorporate this strategy when trading stocks. What they usually do is to "ride" their stocks really high, and maintain an exit strategy in the event that things get out of hand. This is where the liquidity of their investment is extremely vital to one’s business. That is, they should know that whatever liquidity they have can be easily converted into cash.
3. Invest only what you are comfortable with.

Even if a particular investment opportunity, say, an exciting IPO of a big company, looks very attractive, it is a must for every investors not to invest in it if they are not prepared to risk losing their money on it. Regardless of how attractive an investment might look, there is always risk involved. You can come out a winner, but you can also come out a loser, so don’t gamble away your life’s savings. Finally, most stock experts recommend today that those who want to get the best stock market returns should use every day costs in their investment strategy. Threfore it is a good idea for investors to always carry a handy calculator with them. The most important thing about stock market investment is not so much to pick the winners but to try to avoid the losers.
Timing Is Everything

Aim for the best timing in stock market trading. It is the only option for a successful stock market investor. In order to raise capital and invest in the business, companies issue their stocks and the public may then buy and sell. The price varies depending on the supply and demand. This is what a stock market trader takes full advantage of. The business of stock market trading can offer better profits to the investor compared to ordinary stock enterprise. The stock market offers a wide variety of stocks to choose from for any investor to go on with stock trading. There is always a moving stock out there amongst the thousands of others registered. However, a careless attempt to proceed with stock market trading can produce undesirable result. Big losses can be incurred if the market trend is not properly predicted. Small profits would also frustrate the purpose of doing stock market trading. An uninformed stock trader may also end up waiting for that decisive moment that would never come.

Market Timing
To avoid the adverse effects of poor stock market trading, investors use market timing to forecast when the market will change its course. Market timing presumes that the decisive point can be predicted ahead. The direction of the market is predicted through a thorough examination of the price and economic data.
Best Timing
The consistency of such trend prediction is subject to many factors, that is why the aim of any would-be successful investor is best timing. At first glance, market timing sounds like a guaranteed way to make it big. This however requires exertion of considerable effort and persistence in carefully studying the various factors.
Avoid mere speculating. Speculating is a desperate move when the investor hasn't done his homework.
Investors also buy stocks because they got a hot tip from someone. Most of these tips however prove to be false, as they are mostly given by parties with vested interests.
Market timing requires involvement in research to know the company's history and calculate the trend by charting the movement of the stock’s price. This involves analysis of the value of the stock to come close to accurate in predicting the trend. This is ideal in developing standards for when to buy and when to sell for the investor must accurately settle on the proper time to sell. One must also correctly determine when to regain, reselling the stock bought when it reaches its peak value. This way, the maximum profits can be realized.

The Best Way to do the Stock Market
In a volatile market such as stock trading, there is no sure fire way of continually posting growths in profits for any investor year after year, stock after stock. It is statistically impossible. This is true simply because of the unpredictability of the market. The lack of an accurate prediction tool and the lack of a consistent trend for any stock only compounds the problem.
The greatest myth about being successful in trading is the need for the investor to be able to predict the stock market’s movements. People incorrectly assume that stocks bounce around the range forever and therefore they must be able to predict a trend in the movement in order buy stocks during their lowest value and sell them at their highest peaks.
This is grossly incorrect.
The best way to make money in the stock market is to avoid approaches that rely on stock market predictions.
If you look at it, a conscious action of predicting the market is no better than buying a stock and holding on to it for a long period.
The reason behind this is because there is simply no way to predict stock performance. There is no person who can accurately predict stock movement consistently, all of the time.
An analyst may be able to predict a stock’s performance in the immediate future but rarely in the long term. The analyst may predict next quarter’s performance, or even for the entire year. But it is statistically impossible to predict stock movement correctly quarter after quarter, year after year.
A good way to do trading is to formulate your own strategy. Consider the following:
  • Take time to do a careful evaluation of the history of a stock’s performance.
  • Keep up with the latest news and stock market reports
  • Study the structure of successful mutual funds to see how their investment strategy is
    done. You can choose these funds to choose the best they are composed of and build your own portfolio from them.
  • It is best to invest in a stock that has good dividend and growth.
  • Invest in stocks that have a history of progressive gain.
  • Evaluate the type of sector your company deals with.

Again, there is no specific and proven strategy that consistently reaps profit for any investor. Stocks are volatile and any strategy that proves reliable today may prove entirely worthless tomorrow.

The best way is to study several stocks and consider them as long-term investments. These may take you longer before you post any profit, but it beats putting all of your eggs in one basket.

How To's of Stock Market Trading
Stock is ownership in a company. Each share of stock represents a small piece of ownership. The more shares a person holds, the more part of the company he owns. The more part of the company a person owns translates to more dividends he earns when the company profits.
A stock market is a market for the trading of publicly held company stock as well as associated financial instruments such as stock options and stock index futures. On the other hand, stock market trading is the buying or selling securities or commodities specifically in the stock market. There are two basic methods of doing stock market trading. Traditionally, stock markets where open-outcry where trading happened on the stock exchange floor. The more modern way of doing stock trading is through electronic exchanges where everything occurs online real-time. Stock market trading via the exchange floor could not look any more chaotic. When the stock market is open, hundreds of people are seen rushing about, shouting and gesturing to each another on the exchange floor. Traders are also often seen talking on phones, keeping a close eye on the consoles and entering data into terminals. Online stock market trading moves the trading off the floors and more into the networks. The electronic market employs a vast network of computers to match buyers and sellers instead of human brokers. While lacking the excitement of the usual stock market exchange floor, it is faster and more efficient. Investors frequently get an almost instant confirmation on any trades done. How does stock market trading work? Be it on the chaotic stock market exchange floor or electronically, one needs to get an investment broker first.

For traditional exchange floor trading, after asking a broker to buy a certain number of shares at the market, the broker’s order department sends this order to the clerk on the floor. The clerk alerts a trader who finds another trader who is willing to sell the shares the investor requested. The two traders agree on a price for the stocks and close the deal. Notification is sent back the same way until the broker calls the investor to inform him of the final price. This process may take a while depending on the market and stocks. Days later, the investor receives the confirmation mail.
The electronic counterpart is less complicated because the stock buying and selling are matched by the computers in real-time. And the investors get instant updates on what happens to his stock trade.
To Win or to Fail: Tips for Successful Trading
Investing money entails a great amount of risk. Like they always say, "It takes money, to make money." But money doesn’t grow on trees, you know. But it doesn’t necessarily mean that to achieve good profits, one has to invest heavily and risk greatly. That is not the case all the time. A well-informed investor can make sound decisions that will help him earn considerable profits with minimal loss.
The first lesson a successful businessman will tell you is that any endeavor carries potential risk along with potential gain. The trick is to determine if the profit is worth the risk. If it is, it is now time to consider if you are willing to take the risk.
So before you start trading, ask yourself this:
a.) What are your achievement goals?
b.) Are your investments going to lose money?
c.) Are you willing to take bigger risks for better profits?
Setting your achievement goals will allow you to know how long you’re willing to wait for a stock to gain profit. It will also give you a limit on how much you’re willing to lose. It will also give you an idea on how to go about investing in a stock.
If you choose a low-return investment, it will mean that either you increase the amount you invest or increase the length of time invested.
After you have made up your mind with the above questions, there are some tips you may want to use to evaluate your trading philosophy.

When to invest
Ordinarily, you want to trade all the time. You get excited when you see shares go up or when they fall down. You make decisions based on a whim and factors that donít usually affect a stock in the long run. The best traders wait 50% of the time waiting and studying how a stock performs. They do not trade every day and all the time.
Discipline yourself
You are so excited to make trades that you trade on a stock that looks half-decent enough rather than waiting for the best stock to come along.
Small moves big pay off
Don’t waste time dabbling in so many small stocks with minimal profit. Watch out for big stocks and concentrate on a few.
Do not be too emotional
Making money is exciting. Losing money can get very depressing. Detach yourself from your emotions; otherwise, you won’t be able to look at things objectively.
Trading stocks is a high-risk, high-profit venture. Dabbling in the stock market half-cocked is suicide. Take your time. Study, research and be patient. After all, it’s your money, so it’s your loss.

7 Stock Market Tips to Live By
Planning to go into stock market investment? Here are some general tips to live by.
1. Understand the basics of economics.
The stock market follows the laws of economics, particularly the law of supply and demand. If there is a greater demand for the stocks of a particular company, the price of its stocks will go up accordingly. On the other hand, if there are more stocks available for selling (more sellers) than stock buyers, the unit price of that company’s stocks will go down.
2. Study your prospective company(ies).
Read up on the company’s profile: products, services, operations, and track record in the business. This is important to assess the company’s stability and capability to deliver its promises and meet its profit targets.
3. Choose companies that are more likely to stay.
With so many existing companies in the stock market, choosing becomes a big challenge for beginners. Government-owned companies and businesses are relatively stable, unless there is a political revolution in the horizon. Telecommunications and gasoline companies are also stable and profitable since the demand for these products and services is constant.
Although IT companies are the fastest growing in the market today, be careful because there are so many of them that it checking on their profiles could be very taxing. Choose IT companies that have proven track records of profitability and stability of at least 10 years.

4. Always read and watch the news.
Dealing with the stock market is not a guessing game. Sound decisions and good intuition are results of constantly learning about the local and global political and economic happenings. Give particular attention to the industry where your company belongs. Even stable companies can suddenly go bankrupt or experience a big blow that can bring them down. Remember Enron?
5. Spread your investments.
Avoid investing in just one company. If all your stocks are concentrated to one company, the chance for loses is also greater. Spread them out so that earning investments can cushion those investments that earn less.
6. Do not rely solely on stock brokers.
Do your homework. Remember, the stockbroker is "gambling" with your money. When an investor does not understand how the stock market works, he/she becomes vulnerable to scrupulous brokers.
7. Do not be greedy.
Although stock market investment is all about profits, becoming greedy will make an investor lose his/her better senses. He/She might suddenly forget to check on economic rumors and decide right away to buy or sell thinking that he/she would make big profits by doing so.

Win the Stock Market With A Winning Attitude!
Many people often wonder why some make it in the stock market and some don’t. They sometimes sigh and say, "They have all the luck, that’s why." True enough, luck can be a factor in one’s success or failure in the stock market. As most experts will allow, trading at the stock market is very similar to gambling. They both involve a great deal of risk. But unlike gambling, success or failure in the stock market is not solely dependent on luck. It has much to do with two things information and attitude.
Information has much to do with success or failure at the stock market. First of all, information makes stock trading more than just guesswork. Analyzing trends can help investors make educated guesses regarding their investments.
One important aspect that often goes unnoticed is the proper attitude investors must have towards investing. Too often, investors fall prey to the wrong type of attitude in investing. This leads to wrong decisions, and impulsive buying or selling. What are these attitudes, and how should they be avoided?
1. Many Investors Exhibit an Impatient Manner
Unfortunately, many investors get into the mix just because they are under the impression that they could get rich overnight as result of a few investments. This is so far from the truth. In fact, successful portfolios are built over time. Stocks take time to mature and appreciate. If the investor never realizes this, he or she might be looking to make a quick buck. And when he or she is unable to, he or she may become discouraged or may sell his or her shares for a lower price.

2. Many Investors Look to Take the Risk to Be Overnight Millionaires
Warren Buffet, the Wall Street Tycoon has this advice for investors: don’t bet all your marbles on stocks that seem to be skyrocketing today. They could crash tomorrow. Buffet confides that he has always built his empire over stocks that were stable and exhibited continued growth over the years. He says that these stocks are preferable to volatile stocks that could crash anytime.
Other investors fail to diversify their portfolios. Depending on how much risk one is willing to take, an investor should divide his or her portfolio into low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk categories, and invest in such stocks. Some people are too risky and put their heads on the guillotine with high-risk investments. Others will not risk their necks on any investments. One should choose an attitude that is just right for his or her risk tolerance.

Fifteen Characteristics of a Successful Stock Trader
Stock trading isn't for everyone. Some folks can do it and some can't. Even among the some who can, not everyone can be successful at it. While there are no hard and fast rules on what makes or doesn't make a successful stock trader, those Wall Street Wizards you may hear about who made the most in the shortest amount of time, all seem to have certain characteristics in common.
  1. Successful stock traders are able to go against their natural instincts.
  2. Successful traders have a system. It’s as simple a system as possible. It doesn't matter which system you use as long as you stick to it. A Successful trader knows her system and makes trades based ONLY on the system. "The secret to success is consistency of purpose" You need to develop a separate strategy for entering a position and exiting one.
  3. Successful traders are risk adverse. Successful traders do not like to lose money and stop themselves before losing too much, even if it means admitting they made a mistake.
  4. Successful traders are willing to make mistakes. Successful traders have what many Native Americans call, "Sovereignty" Sovereignty is the right and ability, not to do the right thing, but to do the wrong thing. Sovereignty is the ability to make your own mistakes.
  5. Successful traders care not embarrassed by taking a loss. Successful traders expect to take losses and know when to cut them.
  6. Successful traders know, or learn how to analyze stocks. Many traders only use technical analysis, but you may want to learn to use fundamental analysis as well.
  7. Successful traders led balanced lives. We all know the thrill of the hunt and the market can be addicting, a successful trader is one who knows when to walk away and can.
  8. A successful trader is Patient. A successful trader lets profitable positions run, but is able to back out when proven wrong. Patience can mean resilience, courage, and conviction for when markets go against you.
  9. A successful trader has a strong Desire to succeed. Success takes steady work not a haphazard effort, a strong desire to succeed can make all the difference in learning what you need to know and sticking to your strategy when the going get rough.
  10. A successful trader is disciplined. Very disciplined. A successful trader will do what he needs to do, even if he isn't in the mood. Discipline also means Sticking to your strategy, not suddenly buying or selling on a whim, or because of a "hot tip."
  11. A successful trader knows the difference between defensive and offensive behavior, and when to use each. - Preserve your money first, profit later.
  12. Successful traders don't listen to rumors or get emotionally involved. To be a successful trader you have to be very hard on yourself. Your have to be able to resist the urge to prove
    yourself right and be ready to make mistakes. . You also need to be able to not let emotions affect your decisions. Setting up stop loss points for every decision is something you are going to have to do. That will mean more than occasionally admitting that you were wrong. You and your portfolio will survive and you will be able to enter the position again when trends indicate the time is right. You are going to have to learn to ignore any emotional ties you have to your stock and make quick stock trends your master. You will miss the lowest entry points and the highest selling points, but you will be able to sleep at night. You will need to learn how to ride the train of the trends and jump off before your profits turn into losses.
  13. A successful trader knows herself. Successful traders must be aware of their strengths and weaknesses. Your strengths and weakness will become very important. Have a plan for dealing with your weakness. Play on your strengths whenever you can.
  14. A successful trader knows her investments. Your investments are almost as important as you are. Know their past and their strengths and weaknesses as well.
  15. A successful trader sticks to the rules. The rules are there for a reason. Nothing can ruin a successful Trader as quickly, or as surely as breaking the rules.


How To Evaluate Stocks
Stock picking is akin to weather prediction - no one can predict with certainty five hours from now if the price will rise or fall, much less five years from now.

Nevertheless, there are indicators that help to reduce the risk and increase the odds of profiting over the long term. After all, historically stocks have returned over 10%, as measured by the growth of the S&P 500.

The first step is to get educated. Learn not only about dividends yields and earnings per share, but also some basic accounting. Reported figures have an air of authority but the sad fact remains that those numbers are arrived at, in part, by accounting methods, which are not cut and dried.

The Enron case (case in which the executives of Enron manipulated their earnings figures to appear to be much more successful than they were) is extreme, but even ordinary procedures involve judgment calls on the part of financial officers and auditors.

Next, commit to continuing research about stocks both inside and outside your intended portfolio, and update it as you buy and sell. There's a broad spectrum between exact prediction and throwing darts blindly. In the long run, those who do their homework do far better and almost all day traders lose money.

Research both prospective buys and intended sells. Many investors put considerable time and effort into analyzing a buy, but then only watch for some price to be reached in order to sell. Knowing when to sell is just as important, and a target should be selected before the stock is bought.

Advice to Beginners


Stock Market Tips: Advice to Beginners

If you have reached that age where you are finally looking into investments, the jargon-filled universe of stock markets and trading can be a bit intimidating. The first time you sit in front of a broker and have nothing to offer but blank stares can be a little scary, but it is important to remember that everyone who has ever traded stock was once where you are right now. We all have to start somewhere, and the important thing is that you’ve started and that you are committed to learning what there is to know about creating real wealth through the stock market.

The first tip for anyone looking to invest is to start with the basics and learn the essentials. This can be done in a myriad of ways. You can head to your local bookstore and buy a book or two on investing, or you can pick up a few books or magazines at your local library. While many publications like the Wall Street Journal are aimed at seasoned investors, there are many publications and books written for people just like you who are starting out.

Another path that you can take if you want to brush up on your investing basics is to take a course at your local community college or university. Many of these basic classes are free or cost almost nothing and they can help you out with things like definitions and basic terms so that when you approach your broker about making trades, you’ll sound like a seasoned pro.

Next, grab a copy of your local newspaper and turn to the business section. There you will see the latest financial news as well as stock listings for all the stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and sometimes the NASDAQ, a smaller US-based stock exchange. The stock listings look like a list of jumbled numbers and symbols for people who may not be familiar with them; however, now that you’ve learned the basics, you can easily read them and start to follow particular stocks to see if they might be a good investment. For fun, pick ten random stocks and follow them for a few weeks to see how they do. If you’ve picked a major company, you will likely be able to find articles online or in publications describing why they are doing well or why they are doing badly.

Next, you and your family should decide how much money you are looking to invest and for how long and what your investing goals are. We all want to save money for retirement, but most investors have other goals in mind, too, such as buying a second home, saving money to travel, saving money for the kids education or maybe starting a business after you retire from your current job. Once you have your investment goals outlined and the amount of money you feel safe investing (remember the golden rule, don’t ever invest any money you can’t afford to lose), you can contact a full service stock broker and dive into the exciting world of investing.

When you approach a stock broker for the first time, you will feel much more confident than you did at the beginning of this exercise. You’ll know the basics when it comes to investing and you’ll have long and short term investment goals outlined, and you’ll even know how to follow a stock each day in the news paper. Basically, you’ll be ahead of 90 percent of the rest of the world when it comes to investing your money for the future.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

सेयरमा लगानी किन जुवा होइन ?

सेयरमा लगानी किन जुवा होइन ?
शंकरमान सिंह
 

नवनियुक्त अर्थमन्त्रीले पुँजी बजार विकासका लागि कुनै किसिमको बाधा अवरोध नहुने सङ्केत दिनुभएको छ । पूर्व अर्थमन्त्रीले सेयर बजारलाई किन जुवाघर भन्नुभएको हो भन्ने नबुझेको पनि बताउनुभएको छ । पुँजी बजारको विकासका लागि आवश्यक परेमा मैत्रीपूर्ण कानुनी वातावरण निर्माण गरिनेछ । उहाँले साना तथा नयाँ साधारण लगानीकर्ताको रक्षा गरिने पनि स्पष्ट पार्नुभएको छ ।

सेयरमा लगानी जुवा होइन । घोडादौड वा फुटबलको खेलमा बाजी थाप्नु जुवा हो । तर सेयरमा लगानी भने जुवा होइन । लगानी गर्दा निश्चित प्रतिफल अपेक्षा गरिएको हुन्छ, अवस्था पहिल्याउन वित्तीय विश्लेषण र अन्य अध्ययन पनि गरिएका हुन्छन् । तर जुवामा यी कुराहरू हुँदैनन् । त्यसैले लगानी, अड्कलबाजी र जुवाको प्रकृति, रूप र सार फरक हुन्छन् ।

लगानी भनेको हालको निश्चित मूल्यलाई भविष्यको अनिश्चित प्रतिफलका लागि बलिदान गर्नु हो । यसका लागि निष्कर्षमा पुग्न निवेश वा विनिवेशको किसिम, रकम, समय, गुणस्तर लगायतको अध्ययन आवश्यक हुन्छ । साथसाथै यस्तो निर्णय प्रक्रिया निरन्तर मात्र होइन विवेकशील हुनुपर्छ । समग्रमा भन्नुपर्दा लगानी भनेको जोखिम र प्रतिफलको विनिमय हो ।

लगानी र अड्कलबाजी केही सन्दर्भमा उस्तै भए पनि फरक हुन । किनकि लगानीका लागि अड्कलबाजी र अड्कलबाजीका लागि लगानी आवश्यक हुन्छ । लगानी र अड्कलबाजीबीचको भिन्नता छुट्याउन सकिने उत्तम आधार सम्भवत अपेक्षाको भूमिका मात्र हो । अड्कलबाजी नगरी कोही पनि धनी बन्न सक्दैन ।

केही पनि नगरी सबथोक हासिल गर्न सकिन्छ भन्ने हुँदैन । सामाजिक दृष्टिले अड्कलबाजीलाई विभिन्न आधारमा लगानीबाट छुट्याउनुपर्छ । जुवा परापूर्वकालदेखि नै चल्दैआएको छ । अधिकांश शब्दकोशले जुवालाई जोखिममा सहभागी हुने क्रियाकलापको रूपमा परिभाषित गरेका छन् । यसको अर्थ जुवा भनेको उच्च प्रतिफलको रूपमा क्षतिपूर्तीको अपेक्षा नगरी जोखिम उठाउनु हो । जुवाडेले देहायका सबै वा केही चरित्र प्रदर्शन गर्छन् ः जुवा एक खास हुन्छ, दीर्घ र लगातार दोहोरिने गर्छ, अरू सबै चासोलाई गौण बनाइदिन्छ, नजिते पनि जुवाडे सधैँ आशावादी हुन्छ, जितेको बेला रोकिँदैन, आफूले थाम्नसक्ने भन्दा बढी जोखिम उठाउँछ, जुवाडेले जुवाबाट अनौठो मनोरञ्जन र उत्तेजना एवं सुख र पीडाको मिश्रण खोजिरहेको हुन्छ । नजानिने किसिमले जुवाडे हारिरहेको हुन्छ ।

जुवा एक किसिमले संयोगको खेलमा अल्पकालीन लगानी हो । यसमा लगानी कति समयका लागि हो भनेर नाप्न सकिन्छ । सारांशमा भन्दा, झण्डै तीन वर्षअघि माओवादी शान्ति प्रक्रियामा आएपछि र विस्तृत शान्ति सम्झौतामा हस्ताक्षर गरेपछि सेयरको कारोबार उल्लेख्य बढेको छ । कसैकसैले अघिल्लो सरकारको राजस्वमुखी नीतिले सेयर बजारको कारोबार घटेको विश्लेषण गरेको पाइन्छ । खास गरी पुँजीगत लाभकरको दरमा वृद्धि, आयको स्वयं घोषणा, घरजग्गा तथा सवारीको खरिदमा स्रोतको खोजी गरिने कुराले सेयर, ऋणपत्र लगायतको धित्रोपत्र खरिद बिक्रीमा नकारात्मक असर गरेको बताइन्छ । सरकार थोरै लचिलो भएको अवस्थामा नेपालको पुँजी बजार विकासमा ठूलो योगदान पुग्ने स्वतन्त्र विश्लेषकहरूको धारणा छ । निजी क्षेत्रमा प्राइभेट तथा पारिवारिक रूपमा सञ्चालित व्यवसायलाई कर छुट वा कर बिदाको सहुलियत दिएर पुँजी बजारतर्फ आकषिर्त गराउनुपर्छ । हाल वित्तीय क्षेत्रले सूचिकृत कम्पनीको संख्या र करोबारको ९० प्रतिशत हिस्सा ओगट्दै आएका छन् । नेप्सेमा सूचिकृत १५८ कम्पनीमध्ये ११६ वित्तीय क्षेत्रका छन् ।

आम रूपमा उदार अर्थतन्त्र अवलम्बन गर्ने र निजी क्षेत्रलाई अग्रपङ्क्तिमा राख्ने विश्वास गरिएको एमाले नेतृत्वको सरकार गठन भएपछि लगानीकर्ताको आत्मविश्वास परिक्षण गर्ने अर्थतन्त्रको द्रुत ब्यारोमिटर मानिने नेप्से पछिल्ला केही दिनमा लगातार उच्च अंकले बढेको छ । नेपालको सेयर बजार तेजीमा गएको भन्न सकिने अवस्था आएको छ । ११७५ को उच्चतम बिन्दुमा पुगेको नेप्से अहिले ७१५ को हाराहारीमा आएको छ ।

विश्व परिदृश्यमा सामान्यतया राजनीतिक स्थिरता कायम नहुँदासम्म सेयर कारोबार उपल्लो तहमा पुग्दैन । सेयर मूल्य स्थिर वा नकारात्मक हुनेगर्छ तर नेपालको सन्दर्भमा नेप्सेले यस विपरीत प्रवृत्ति देखाएको छ ।

पूर्व प्रधानमन्त्रीले राजीनामा दिने वित्तिकै परिसूचक उकालोलागेको थियो भने नयाँ सरकार गठन नहुँदासम्म घटेको थियो । त्यसैगरी एमाले नेतृत्वको सरकार बन्ने भएपछि उल्लेख्य वृद्धि भएको छ । अहिलेको वृद्धि पछाडि मुख्यतया दुई कारण भएको मानिन्छ ः पहिलो आर्थिक वर्ष समाप्त हुन डेढ महिना मात्र बाँकी रहेकोले लगानीकर्ता भदौ र असोजमा लाभांश पाइने आशा छ, अर्को कारण राजनीतिक स्थायित्व वा सत्ता परिवर्तन हो ।

सर्वसाधारणले सामान्यतया भविष्यलाई धानमा राखेर लगानी गर्छन् । लगानी गर्दाको समय र अन्तिम समयको अन्तराललाई लगानीकर्ताको योजना क्षितिज, लगानी क्षितिज वा स्वामित्व अवधि भन्न सकिन्छ ।

यस अवस्थामा अड्कलबाजी र जुवालाई एउटै ठान्नु हुँदैन र यस बारेमा भ्रम रहनुहुँदैन । यसले जुवामा कृत्रिम र अनावश्यक रहेको हुन्छ भन्ने अड्कलबाजी र जुवाबीचको भिन्नता स्पष्ट देखाउँछ । आकारकै कुरा गर्ने हो भने बढी जोखिम उठाउनु भनेको जुवा होइन । जुवा भनेको आर्थिक लाभको उद्देश्यका लागि नभइ जोखिमको खास प्रकृति पत्ता नलगाई जोखिमका लागि जोखिम उठाउने कुरा हो । यस सन्दर्भमा केही प्रश्नहरूको जवाफ खोजिनु आवश्यक हुन्छ । लगानीकर्ताको उद्देश्य के हो ? वाषिर्क प्रतिफल कि मूल्य वृद्धि, कस्तो किसिमको धितोपत्र किनिएको छ, उच्च वा न्यून कोटीको र त्यस्ता धितोपत्र कहिलेसम्म राखिराख्ने हो ?

सेयर बजारको विकासका लागि केही नीतिगत परिवर्तनमार्फत सम्बोधन हुनु आवश्यक छ । किन लगानीकर्ता घट्दो बजारमा भन्दा बढ्दो बजारमा नाफा गर्न सकिन्छ भन्ने विश्वास गर्छन् । खासगरी हामी धेरैजसो बजार ओरालो लागेको बेला भाग्छांै जवकि यस्तो बेला गरिएको लगानीबाट उच्च प्रतिफल प्राप्त हुने सम्भावना बढी हुन्छ । यस पछाडिको मुख्य कारण मानवीय स्वभाव नै हो । छिमेकी मुलुकहरूमा गरिएको अध्ययनले प्रायः साधारण लगानीकर्ता बजारप्रति तीव्र प्रतिक्रिया जनाउने तथ्य पुष्टि गरेको छ । घट्दो बजारमा यस्तो प्रतिक्रिया अझ बढी हुन्छ । घट्दो र बढ्दो दुवै बजारको कुनै चरणमा लगानीकर्ताको व्यवहार तर्कपूर्ण हुँदैन ।

खासगरी बजार घट्दा र बढ्दा दुवै अवस्थामा पैसा कमाउन सकिन्छ । हामीले सावधानी अँगाल्नै पर्छ । अरूले भनेका कुरा पत्याइहाल्नु हुँदैन । आफैंले अध्ययन अनुसन्धान गरेर विवेकशील निर्णय गर्नुपर्छ ।

Saturday, March 7, 2009

क्यासिनो र सेयर बजार


क्यासिनो र सेयर बजार
 
क्यासिनोमा जुवा खेलिन्छ, सेयर बजारमा लगानी गरिन्छ। 
क्यासिनो र सेयर बजारमा केही समानता छन्। सेयर खरिद बिक्रीका लागि आउने पनि अधिकांश पैसावाल नै हुन्। अनुमानका भरमा दाऊ लगाउने क्यासिनोको गुण यसमा पनि छ। 

क्यासिनोजस्तै सेयर बजार पनि सरकारकै अनुमतिमा चल्छ। नेपालमा झन् सेयर खरिदबिक्रीका लागि ´नेपाल स्टक एक्सचेञ्ज लिमिटेड´ नामक कम्पनी सरकारले गठन गरेको छ। पञ्चायत कालमा पुँजी बजारसम्बन्धी सबै कारोबार गर्ने उद्देश्यले गठन भएको ´सेक्युरिटी खरिदबिक्री केन्द्र´ लाई बहुदल आएपछि स्टक एक्सचेञ्जमा परिणत गरिएको हो। 

यसो भन्दैमा क्यासिनोमा जस्तो सेयरमा लगानी गर्नेहरू सबैले गुमाउँदैनन्। अनन्तकालसम्म सेयर बजार अस्तित्वमा रहे यसमा सबैले गुमाएर सञ्चालकले मात्र कमाउने स्थिति आउँदैन। त्यसैले सेयर बजार र क्यासिनोलाई एउटै आँखाले हेर्नु गल्ती हुनेछ। 


जुवा र लगानी 

क्यासिनोमा जुवा खेलिन्छ, सेयर बजारमा लगानी गरिन्छ। जुवा खेल्नुलाई सबै समाजमा परापूर्वकालदेखि हेयको दृष्टिले हेरिंदै आएको छ। लगानीलाई आँट र उद्यमशीलतासँग जोडेर हेरिन्छ। त्यसैले यो सधैं सम्मानको विषय हुन्छ भने जुवाघरमा थापिने बाजी त्यस्तो हुँदैन। 

सेयर बजारको लगानीबाट उच्चतम प्रतिफल पाउने धेरै आधार हुन्छन्। सेयरमा लगानी गर्दा ´समाउने र टेक्ने दुवै हाँगा´ हुन्छ। लगानीकर्तामा त्यसलाई पक्रिने कला हुनुपर्छ। जुवामा हुने जितहार नितान्त संयोगको कुरा हो। 

लगानीकर्ता जोखिम पन्छाउन खोज्छन्, जुवाडे त्यसो गर्दैनन्। सेयर लगानीकर्ताहरू समग्र अर्थतन्त्र र सम्बद्ध कम्पनीको वित्तीय स्वास्थ्य विश्लेषण गरी सकेसम्म जोखिम कम गर्ने प्रयास गर्छन्। क्यासिनोमा जानेहरूसँग यस्तो विश्लेषण गर्ने कुनै आधार हुँदैन। सेयर लगानीमा सीप चाहिन्छ, अध्ययन अनुसन्धान चाहिन्छ, जुवामा भने आवेग हावी हुन्छ। वस्तुगत निर्णय गर्ने आधारहरू जुवामा हुँदैनन्। 

नेपालको सन्दर्भमा क्यासिनोले केही सय मान्छेलाई रोजगारी दिएको छ। आन्तरिक रूपमा उत्पादित वस्तु तथा सेवा खपत पनि गरेको छ। तर यसको अंश नगण्य छ। अर्कोतिर सेयर बजारले निष्क्रिय पुँजी परिचालनमा ठूलो सहायता पुर्‍याउँछ। लाखौं संख्यामा रोजगार सिर्जना गर्नुका साथै वस्तु तथा सेवा उत्पादनमा योगदान गर्छ। स–साना बचतकर्ताको पुँजी ठूला लगानीकर्तासम्म पुर्‍याउने चुस्त संयन्त्रका रूपमा यसले काम गरेको हुन्छ। अहिले सेयरमा लगानी गर्नेको संख्या १० लाख नाघेको अनुमान गरिन्छ। 

जुवा एक मानसिक रोग र सामाजिक विसंगती हो। यसको निराकरण र उपचारका लागि अनेकौं प्रयास भएका छन्। तर लगानीलाई आजसम्म यस्तो भनेको सुनिएको छैन। लगानीले कसैलाई लट्ठ पार्दैन। 

जुवा मनोरञ्जन हो, लगानी व्यवसाय। क्यासिनोभित्रका गतिविधिबारे हामी धेरैलाई थाहा छ। कम्तीमा फिल्ममा हामीले क्यासिनोभित्रको सुरासुन्दरी सहितको रंगिन संसार देखेका छौं। सेयर बजारमा ती कल्पना बाहिरका कुरा हुन्। कारोबार गर्दा चिच्याएर बोली लगाउने प्रथाको अन्त्यपछि सेयर बजारको रौनक कम भएको छ। केही प्रबुद्ध लगानीकर्ताले टिभी तथा पत्रपत्रिकाले प्रस्तुत गर्ने सेयर बजारका विवरणबाट मनोरञ्जन लिन सक्छन्। प्रतिस्पर्धाका कारण सेयर बजारका तथ्यांकलाई बढी भन्दा बढी आकर्षक बनाउने प्रयास सञ्चार माध्यमले गरेका छन्। 

लगानी सुरक्षित भविष्यतर्फ लक्षित हुन्छ, जुवा हुँदैन। अवकाशपछिको जिवनयापन, छोराछोरीको पढाईलगायत आकस्मिक घटनाहरूबाट सजिलै उन्मुक्ति पाउन बचतलाई लगानीमा रूपान्तर गरिन्छ। ती उद्देश्य प्राप्तीका लागि जुवा खेलिंदैन। 

सेयरमा लगानी स्वामित्व ग्रहण गर्ने प्रक्रिया हो। लगानीकर्ताले जुन कम्पनीको सेयर किन्छ त्यसको मालिक हुन्छ। सेयर खरिदसँगै सम्पत्ति र दायित्वको हिस्सेदार बन्छन् लगानीकर्ता। जुवामा सम्पत्ति र दायित्वको मालिक बन्न कुनै चीज हुँदैन। गैर–जिम्मेवार हुन्छन् जुवा खेल्नेहरू। 

उसो भए क्यासिनो र सेयर बजारबीचको यस्तो स्पष्ट भिन्नतालाई लिएर हामीकहाँ किन विवाद भइरह्यो? किन हाम्रा अर्थमन्त्रीले सेयर बजारलाई क्यासिनो भने भन्ने विषयले चर्चा पायो? 

अविकसित मुलुकका राजनीतिक नेतृत्वमा वित्तीय साक्षरताको अभाव हुने भएकाले जनताको आर्थिक स्तर उकास्न गर्न सकिने स–साना कामको उनीहरूलाई जानकारी नै हुँदैन। सम्पत्ति सिर्जना, आर्थिक सिर्जनशीलता, बजार निर्माण झन् टाढाका कुरा हुन्। कसैगरी जानकारी पाइहाले पनि सम्बद्ध पार्टीको घोषित राजनीतिक सिद्धान्तलाई तिलाञ्जली दिएर परिवर्तित आर्थिक–राजनीतिक यथार्थ स्विकार गर्न उनीहरू सक्दैनन्। कामै नलाग्ने भए पनि पार्टीको नीति तथा कार्यक्रमविरुद्ध जाने प्रयास कसैले गरे उसको राजनीतिक ´करियर´ समाप्त हुनसक्छ। समाजवादी झुकाव भएका नेताहरूका लागि यो अत्यन्त कठिन काम हो। कम्युनिष्टहरू त झन् डेढ सय वर्षअघिको मार्क्सका किताबमा अहिलेका जनताको आर्थिक नियती परिवर्तन गर्ने कुरा खोजिरहेका हुन्छन्।

Monday, February 9, 2009

अरू डराएका बेला हामी लोभी हुनुपर्छ

अरू डराएका बेला हामी लोभी हुनुपर्छ
 सेयर बजारमा अरू डराएका बेला लोभी हुनुपर्छ र अरू लोभी भएका बेला डराउनुपर्छ। 

झण्डै पाँच दशकअघि प्रसिद्ध लगानीकर्ता वारेन बफेटले साथीभाइसँग भनेका थिए, ´अरू डराएकाबेला हामी लोभी हुनुपर्छ र अरू लोभी भएकाबेला हामी डराउनुपर्छ।´ सेयर बजारको उतारचढाव इंगित गर्ने उनको यो भनाइ आजसम्म कसैले झुठो ठहर्‍याउन सकेको छैन। 

बफेट जे भन्छन्, त्यो गर्छन्। त्यसैले सेयर लगानीबाट उनी संसारकै दोस्रो धनी व्यक्ति भएका छन्। उतिबेला साथीभाइको सानो समूहमा बफेटले भनेको त्यो कुरा अहिले संसारभरकै लगानीकर्ताका लागि गुरूमन्त्र बनेको छ। 

सामान्यतया सेयर बजार गिर्दो अवस्था (बियरिस ट्रेन्ड) मा रहेकाबेला लगानीकर्ताहरू डराउँछन्। आफूसँग भएको सेयर बेच्न खोज्छन्। बजारमा सेयर आपूर्ति बढ्छ र मूल्य घट्छ। बजार झन् तल झर्छ। यसबाट मूल्य घट्दै जाने एउटा चक्रको थालनी हुन्छ। यसरी सबै डराएर सेयर बेचिरहेको अवस्थामा बफेटले साथीहरूलाई लोभी हुनुपर्छ भनेका हुन्। 

यसविपरीत सेयर बजार निरन्तर उकालो लागिरहेको अवस्था (बुलिस ट्रेन्ड) मा लगानीकर्ता अति उत्साहित हुन्छन्। सेयर मूल्य बढ्दै गएको देखेर लोभिएका लगानीकर्ता बढीभन्दा बढी सेयर माग गर्छन्। यसबाट मूल्य बढ्दै जाने अर्को चक्रको थालनी हुन्छ। सबैलाई लोभले गाँजेकाबेला सचेत लगानीकर्ता मुक्त हुनुपर्छ भन्ने बफेटको आग्रह हो। 
 सबैलै सेयर बेच्दैछन् भन्दैमा आफूले पनि बेच्ने भूल गर्नु हुँदैन। बरू बियरिस बजारमा सेयर सस्तो पाइने हुनाले राम्रा कम्पनी छानेर किन्नेतर्फ लाग्नुपर्छ। यस अवस्थामा लामो समय टिकिरहनसक्ने सेयर छान्नु बुद्धिमानी हुन्छ।

उसो भए सेयर बजारका सबै लगानीकर्ता बफेटको सल्लाहबमोजिम चल्न सक्छन्? पक्कै सक्दैनन्। सक्ने भए सेयर बजारमा कसैले पनि गुमाउने थिएनन्, सबैले कमाउँथे। सेयर बजारको चुनौती भनेको त्यसको चाल ठम्याएर आफू पहिलो हुने हो। सामान्य बुद्धिले पनि के भन्न सकिन्छ भने कुनै पनि क्षेत्रमा जो कोही पहिलो हुन सक्दैन। सेयर बजारमा कतिबेला प्रवेश गर्ने (सेयर किन्ने) र कतिखेर बाहिरिने (सेयर बेच्ने) भनेर जान्ने पहिलो पंक्तिका लगानीकर्ताले नै सफलता हात पार्छन्। 

आज हामी बियर मार्केटबारे छलफल गरौं। वित्त साहित्यमा बजार परिसूचकमा अघिल्लो उचाइँबाट २० प्रतिशतको गिरावटलाई बजार मन्दी (बियर मार्केट) तर्फ गएको मानिन्छ। नेपालको सेयर बजारमा भदौ १७ गते कारोबार मापन गर्ने परिसूचक नेप्सेले १ हजार १ सय ७५ को उचाइँ बनाएको थियो। अहिले ६ सय ५८ मा आइपुगेको छ। झण्डै ४४ प्रतिशतको यो गिरावटले पुष्टी गर्छ, अहिलेको बजार वियर मार्केट हो।

यो नेपाली सेयर बजारको मात्रै विशेषता होइन। संसारभरकै सेयर बजार यस्तो अवस्थाबाट गुज्रिएका छन्। यो समग्र आर्थिक चक्रकै पाटो हो। अहिले पनि अधिकांश सेयर बजार यही अवस्थामा छन्। वित्तशास्त्रीहरू बियरिस ट्रेन्ड बजार सन्तुलनका लागि आवश्यक मान्छन्। उनीहरू यसले लगानीकर्तालाई ईमान्दार र सचेत बनाउँछ भन्छन्। बजारको यो प्रवृत्तिबाट पार हुनेहरू ठूलो धनराशिको मालिक हुने ग्यारेन्टी पनि उनीहरू गर्छन्। 

अब कुरा गरौं घट्दो सेयर बजारबाट कसरी पार पाउने? सेयर बजारको इतिहासबाट प्रत्येक लगानीकर्ताले सिक्नुपर्ने पहिलो पाठ हो, धैर्य धारण गर्ने। कारोबारको प्रत्येक चरण (किन्ने, होल्ड गर्ने र बेच्ने बेला) मा धैर्य उत्तिकै आवश्यक हुन्छ। धैर्यको महत्वबारे धेरै लगानीकर्तालाई थाहा भए पनि व्यवहारमा उतार्न निकै कठिन हुन्छ। तर बजारबारे केही कुरा बुझयो भने धैर्य धारण गर्ने शक्ति प्राप्त नहुने होइन। 

हामीले बजार किन घटिरहेको छ भन्ने कारण पहिल्याउने प्रयास गर्‍यौं भने यो कहिलेसम्म कायम रहन्छ, कहिले टुंगिन्छ र तत्काल के गर्नुपर्छ भन्ने थाहा पाउँछौं। अहिले समग्र आर्थिक स्थिति, कम्पनीहरूको वित्तीय अवस्था सकारात्मक हुँदा पनि बजार घटिरहेको छ। यसबाट अर्थतन्त्र र बजारको यो विपरित अवस्था लामो समय रहँदैन भन्ने अनुमान गर्न सकिन्छ। 

बियरिस ट्रेन्ड छोटै अवधिका लागि रहे पनि सचेत लगानीकर्ताले केही सतर्कता अपनाउनैपर्छ। बफेटले भनेझैं सबैलै सेयर बेच्दैछन् भन्दैमा आफूले पनि बेच्ने भूल गर्नु हुँदैन। बरू बियरिस बजारमा सेयर सस्तो पाइने हुनाले राम्रा कम्पनी छानेर किन्नेतर्फ लाग्नुपर्छ। यस अवस्थामा लामो समय टिकिरहनसक्ने सेयर छान्नु बुद्धिमानी हुन्छ। नयाँ लगानीकर्ता बजारमा उच्च मूल्यमा सेयर बिक्री भइरहेको कम्पनी, कुनै कारणले चर्चित कम्पनी र ठूला कम्पनीमा आकर्षित हुने गर्छन्। यसो गर्नु गलत हो। बियर मार्केटमा कम चिनिएका र बढी प्रतिफल दिनसक्ने वित्तीय अवस्था सुदृढ भएका कम्पनी खोज्नुपर्छ। 

सेयर घटेकाबेला लगानीकर्ताले रक्षात्मक रणनीतिलाई उत्तिकै महत्व दिनुपर्छ। आफूसँग भएको लगानीयोग्य सम्पत्ति पूरै सेयरमा लगाइहाल्नु हुँदैन। बजारमा नसोचेको अवस्था आउनसक्छ। धेरै राम्रा लगानीका अवसर आउनसक्छन्, कल्पनै नगरेको मूल्यमा सेयर पाउन सकिन्छ। त्यसका लागि आफूसँग केहि नगद राख्नुपर्छ। 

गिर्दो अवस्था, बजार बुझ्ने राम्रो अवसर पनि हो। बजार बुझेर भविष्यमा बढी प्रतिफल लिन तयार हुनुपर्छ। घटेको अवस्थामा बजारलाई नजिकबाट नियाल्नुपर्छ, कति रकमको कारोबार भइरहेको छ, कुन कम्पनीको घटिरहेको छ, कसको बढिरहेको छ, कुन दरमा घटबढ भइरहेको छ? स्टक एक्सचेञ्जले सूचिकृत कम्पनीलाई ९ समूहमा विभाजन गरेको छ। ती सबै समूहको अवस्था तुलना गर्नुपर्छ। आफूले रोजेका कम्पनीको हालत के भयो हेर्ने मौका यही हो। यस्तो बेला रोजेको कम्पनीको सेयर मूल्य कस्तो रह्यो, उसको वित्तीय अवस्था के छ, कम्पनीको व्यवस्थापन र व्यवस्थापनको व्यवहार हेर्न सकिन्छ।

बियर बजार छल्न सकिंदैन त्यसैले सधैं हेक्का राख्नुपर्छ, अहिले बढिरहेको सेयर कुनै दिन घट्छ र यसविपरित अवस्था पनि आउँछ। हाम्रो देशमा सेयर लगानीसम्बन्धी परामर्श दिने वा लगानी व्यवस्थापन गर्ने आधिकारिक संस्था छैनन्। भएको अवस्थामा पनि त्यस्ता संस्थाको बढी भर पर्नु हुँदैन। तपाईको लगानी गर्ने र बजारमा टिसकरहनसक्ने क्षमताबारे तपाईभन्दा जानकार अरू कोही हुन सक्दैन। त्यसैले बजारको जुनसुकै अवस्थामा तपाईको सबभन्दा असल सल्लाहकार तपाई स्वयं हो, दोस्रो हुन सक्दैन।
 मुराहरि पराजुली  

Friday, January 30, 2009

कुरा सेयर बजारको

 2009-01-29 19:11:07
कुरा सेयर बजारको
 लहैलहैमा लागेर केही नबुझी सेयर बजारमा आउनेले बढी गुमाउँछन्। 
´आकाशका ताराको गति थाहा पाउन सकिएला तर मान्छेको पागलपनको भेउ पाउन सकिन्न´–सेयर बजारमा २० हजार पाउन्ड गुमाएपछि वैज्ञानिक न्युटनले त्यसो भनेका थिए। न्युटनलेजस्तै सेयर बजारमा सबैले गुमाउदैनन् बरु कमाउनेको संख्या बढी छ।  
अनुभव सबैभन्दा ठूलो गुरु हो भन्ने भनाइ कतै पूर्णरूपमा लागु हुन्छ भने त्यो सेयर बजार नै हो। उकालो चढ्ने, ओरालो झर्ने सेयर बजारको प्रवृत्तिका बारेमा अरूका मुखबाट सुनेको लगानीकर्ताका लागि पर्याप्त हुदैन। तैपनि साथीभाइ जानेबुझेकासँग लगानीकर्ताले जिज्ञासा भने राख्दै आएका हुन्छन्। नयाँ लगानीकर्ताका तिनै जिज्ञासालाई सम्बोधन गर्ने प्रयास यहाँ गरिएको छ।  
नेपालको सेयर बजार अन्य मुलुकका तुलनामा नयाँ हो। त्यसैले यहाँ बुझेका र अनुभवीभन्दा नबुझेका र अनुभवहीन लगानीकर्ताको संख्या धेरै छ। नबुझेकै कारण धेरै लगानीकर्ताले गल्ती गर्दै र मेहनतको कमाइ गुमाउँदै पनि आएका छन्। तर नेपालको सेयर बजारको सकारात्मक पक्ष के हो भने यहाँ ठूलो परिमाणमा सधैंका लागि गुमाउने लगानीकर्ताको संख्या थोरै छ। यहाँ एकपटक गुमाएकाले आफ्नो गल्ती सच्याएर कमाउन थालेको उदाहरण भने प्रशस्तै पाइन्छ।   
  लगानीकर्ता सेयरबजारमा कतिसम्म टिकिरहनसक्छ भन्ने कुरा उसको आर्थिक,शैक्षिक र मनोवैज्ञानिक पृष्ठभूमिले पनि निर्धारण गर्छ।  आजै किनेको सेयरको मूल्य बढेन वा घट्यो भनेर आत्तिने लगानीकर्ता सेयरबजारमा प्रवेश नगरेकै राम्रो हुन्छ।

सेयर बजारमा फलानोले यति कमायो, फलानो रातारात करोडपति भयो भन्ने लहैलहैमा लागेर केही नबुझी आउनेले बढी गुमाउँछन्। बुद्धिमान लगानीकर्ताले सेयर बजारबाट कमाउनेले कसरी कमाए भन्ने बुझ्नु जरुरी हुन्छ। सेयर बजारमा लगानी गर्नु भनेको एक किसिमले पौडी खेल्नु जस्तै हो। पढेर पौडी खेल्न सिकिँदैन, यसका लागि तलाउमा प्रवेश गर्नैपर्छ। त्यसो भन्दैमा तलाउमाजस्तै सामान्य जानकारी पनि नलिई सेयर बजारमा प्रवेश गर्नु मूर्खता हुन्छ।  
बजार प्रवेश गर्ने उपयुक्त समय  

सेयर बजारमा प्रवेश गर्ने (सेयर किन्ने) र त्यहाँबाट बाहिरिने (सेयर बेच्ने) निश्चित समय हुन्छ। सचेत लगानीकर्ताले बजार प्रवेश गर्ने र बाहिरिने समयको सधै ख्याल राख्नुपर्छ। बजारमा सेयरको मूल्य लगातार बढीरहेको तेजीको अवस्थालाई ´बुलिस ट्रेन्ड´ र घटिरहेको मन्दीको अवस्थालाई ´वियरिस ट्रेन्ड´ भनिन्छ। कुनैपनि चिज सस्तोमा किनेर महङ्गोमा बेच्दा फाइदा हुन्छ भन्ने सामान्य व्यावसायिक चेतना भएको जोसुकैले पनि बुझ्ने कुरा हो। सेयर कारोबारमा पनि यही नियम लागू हुन्छ। सामान्यतया सेयर मूल्य बढिरहेको अवस्थामा बजार प्रवेश गर्नु उपयुक्त मानिदैन। सेयर मूल्यले उच्चतम विन्दु छोएको बेला किनियो भने बेच्दा सस्तोमा बेच्नुपर्ने हुनसक्छ। त्यसो नभएपनि सेयर मूल्यले अर्को उचाइ नबनाउञ्जेल पर्खनुपर्ने हुन्छ। त्यसैले कुन सेयरको मूल्य कहिले बढेको थियो वा घटेको थियो। घट्नुबढ्नुका कारण के थिए भन्ने लगानीकर्ताले पत्ता लगाउने कोसिस गर्नुपर्छ।  
सही छनौट  
खरिद गर्दा लगानीकर्ताले उपयुक्त सेयर छान्न पनि जान्नु पर्दछ। सेयर किन्न लागेको कम्पनीको वित्तीय अवस्था, व्यवस्थापन पक्ष र कम्पनीसम्बद्ध क्षेत्रको भविष्यका बारेमा सामान्य जानकारी राख्नुपर्छ। कुनै बैंक अथवा वित्त कम्पनीको सेयर किन्ने हो भने उक्त कम्पनीको वित्तीय अवस्था के कस्तो छ? तिनका संचालक तथा व्यवस्थापकहरू को को हुन्? तिनले कति कुशलतापूर्वक कम्पनी चलाउन सक्छन् र समग्र बैंक तथा वित्तीय क्षेत्रकै भविष्य कस्तो हुन्छ? भन्ने लगानीकर्ताले जान्नुपर्छ।  
बजार उतारचढावको सामना   
उतारचढावबीना सेयरबजार सञ्चालन हुनैसक्दैन। त्यसैले लगानीकर्ताले सामान्य उतारचढावको सामना गर्नुपर्छ। मूल्य बढिरहेका बेलामा  हतार गरेर सेयर बेच्ने र थप घट्नसक्ने अवस्थामा किनिहाल्ने लगानीकर्ताले उच्चतम प्रतिफल पाउन सक्दैन। लगानीकर्ता सेयरबजारमा कतिसम्म टिकिरहनसक्छ भन्ने कुरा उसको आर्थिक,शैक्षिक र मनोवैज्ञानिक पृष्ठभूमिले पनि निर्धारण गर्छ।  आजै किनेको सेयरको मूल्य बढेन वा घट्यो भनेर आत्तिने लगानीकर्ता सेयरबजारमा प्रवेश नगरेकै राम्रो हुन्छ। बुद्धिमान् लगानीकर्ताले सेयरमूल्य आफूले अनुमान गरेअनुसार किन बढेन वा घटीरहेको छ भने किन घटीरहेको छ भन्ने पत्ता लगाएर त्यसअनुसार आफ्नो रणनीति तय गर्छ।  
लोभ र त्रास  
वित्त साहित्यमा लोभ र त्रासलाई सेयर बजारलाई चलायमान बनाउने आधारभूत तत्त्वका रूपमा व्याख्या गरिएको पाइन्छ। लगानीकर्तामा लोभ बढ्दै जाँदा बढीभन्दा बढी सेयर किन्दै जान्छ वा बेच्नुपर्ने सेयर बेच्दैन। यसले सेयरको मूल्य र समग्र बजारलाई माथि उठाउँछ। अर्कोतर्फ डरका कारण लगानीकर्ता सेयर बेचेर उम्कन खोज्छ। बढीभन्दा बढी लगानीकर्ता सेयर बजारबाट उम्कन खोजेको अवस्थामा मूल्य तथा समग्र बजार ओरालो लाग्छ। त्यसैले डर मान्नुपर्ने वा उत्साहित हुनुपर्ने सूचना तथा समाचारहरू प्राप्त भएको अवस्थामा त्यसको पुष्टि नगरी लहैलहैमा सेयर किनबेचको निर्णय गर्नुहुदैन।  
एकैचोटी सबै पैसा नलगाउने  
नयाँ हुन् वा पुराना लगानीकर्ता कसैले पनि आफूसँग भएको सबै पैसा सेयरमा लगानी गर्नुहुदैन।  लगानीका उपकरणमध्ये सेयर सबभन्दा बढी जोखिमयुक्त हुन्छ। आन्तरिक र बाह्य कारणले सेयरबजारमा अकल्पनीय स्थिति आउनसक्छ। त्यस्ता अवस्था सामान्यतया एक्लो लगानीकर्ताको नियन्त्रणभन्दा बाहिरको हुन्छ। त्यसैले त्यस्तो प्रतिकूल परिस्थितिमा आफूलाई टिकाइराख्न लगानीकर्ताले आफूसँग केही नगद राख्नुपर्छ वा अरु क्षेत्रमा लगानी गर्नुपर्छ।  
लगानी विविधीकरण 
सबै अन्डा एउटै टोकरीमा नराख्नु बुद्धिमानी मानिन्छ। सेयरमा लगानी गर्दा पनि यसलाई ध्यान दिनुपर्छ। सचेत लगानीकर्ताले कहिल्यै पनि एउटै कम्पनी, समूह वा क्षेत्रको सेयरमा लगानी गर्दैन। आर्थिक चक्र चलिरहँदा अर्थतन्त्रका विभिन्न क्षेत्र डुब्ने र उत्रने गरिरहन्छन्। आज बैंक तथा वित्तीय क्षेत्र तेजीमा चलीरहेको छ भने भोलि नचल्नसक्छ, हिजोसम्म घाटामा गएका होटलहरू देशमा अनुकूल वातावरण बन्दै गएकोले नाफामा जानसक्छन्। यस तथ्यलाई मनन गरेर लगानीकर्ताले सेयर किन्दा विविधीकरणको नीति लिनु राम्रो हुन्छ। विभिन्न समूह र क्षेत्रका राम्रा कम्पनीको छनौट गरी सेयर लगानी गर्दा पक्कै सफलता हात लाग्छ।  
 मुराहरि पराजुली  

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Road to successful investor

Road to successful investor


Those who are interested to invest and build a personal financial plan for life have a goal in mind. Be a successful investor. Especially, if you know about legend investors, your mind will tempt to follow the methods and the road they selected to there success. That is a good idea but, there are some factors and homework an investor must do himself to be a successful investor in life. This article pointing out some must required actions. Read the entire article below:

Read, read, read

Consider to read maximum. Reading great books, articles and newsletters will give you enough knowledge to select the right path at tight time. Not only that but, it will also give you enough knowledge on various aspects on investment instrument selections and valuations. A successful investor should spend enough time to find and read most useful books and articles to gain all required knowledge.

Acquire knowledge on available products to invest

Investment world is not small with one or two products. It is very vast and the success of an investor laying on the selection and combination of these products at the right time. To have a successful financial plan, an investor should aware about the advantages and disadvantages of all the investment products around him. He should be able to identify the right one and compare the same with all other similar products available in the market to identify the winner or the loser. A successful investor not only should have good knowledge about the products he deals with presently but, he should be able to understand and explain the features of various products available around him.

Watch business channels

Television especially business channels are necessary part to investors day to day life. This is a very good source to get updated information on latest trends and changes. I am not saying to believe and act as per what they are saying but, through business channels, an investor will get enough opportunity to identify best investment products to do own research to understand the investment suitability. Make this as a regular practice.

Usage of internet

Internet is the excellent source to get instant access to well written articles, valuable informations, real time data and other similar informations. Utilize the maximum and get enough knowledge about all the areas of investment practices.

Grouping and social networking sites

Social networking sites are a best source to share and take ideas. It is very helpful to identify whether your plan has any loopholes or chance of failure. You can also receive very good reviews on your ideas as well as winning ideas from experts who are also in the part of the group where you are in.


Don't believe everything blindly

A careful approach to the research reports and the words from self acting investment gurus required your own research and study to believe or avoid. Always have practical approach. Don’t believe anything without your own research. Research reports might have hidden traps to investors if blindly follow them. Through study and digging to the truth will help you to identify the fact and act as per that.

Chat with experts

Chat rooms are an excellent source to get real time informations from experience people. Care should be taken about the person in the other end and don’t blindly believe him without your own study on what they are suggesting or recommending.

Participate to events

Participating events related to the subject is a good idea to get helpful informations and knowledge. In my opinion, an investor should take the advantage from all the events happening around him. It can be an investor meets or an awareness section or a company general meeting. Whatever it is, participating to such events help an investor to meet people with similar thoughts as well as chance to contact experts. It is also helpful to clear any doubts and get prompt answer to your questions. It can also be used for building good friendships with other investors.

Passion on investing

This is the most important factor. Be passionate. Without passion, you can’t achieve anything. Learn from the real life of legend investors. They have enough passion to the profession and that lead them to great success. So be passionate or leave such profession immediately.

I am happy to know whether this article useful to you or not. If you feel that I have missed some important points, please comment and inform me. I will add the same as soon as possible because that will be a great help to those who are reading this post in the future.

Investing GURUS

Recent TOP Investing GURUS

Top 10 Richest person in the World - 2008

Top 10 Richest person in the World - 2008


1) The American investor and philanthropist Warren Buffet is worth an estimated $62 billion, up $10 billion from a year ago thanks to surging prices of Berkshire Hathaway stock, according to Forbes magazine's annual ranking of the world's billionaires.

2) Mexican telecom tycoon Carlos Slim Helu was named the world's second richest man, with a net worth of around $60 billion, up $11 billion since last March.

3) Bill Gates, the co-founder of Microsoft, is now ranked as the world's third richest person. At $58 billion, his net worth is up $2 billion from a year ago.

Bill Gates
4) Steel giant Lakshmi Mittal placed fourth with 45 billion dollars

Lakshmi Mittal
5) Petrochemicals tycoon Mukesh Ambani placed fifth with 43 billion dollars

Mukesh Ambani
6) Anil Ambani at sixth position with 42 billion dollars

Anil Ambani
7) Ikea store chain owner Ingvar Kamprad was seventh at $31 billion

Ingvar Kamprad
8) Property magnate K.P. Singh came in eighth on the list, with a fortune estimated at 30 billion dollars.K.P. Singh
9) Aluminum giant Oleg Deripaska was ninth at $28 billion

Oleg Deripaska
10) Aldi store chain owner Karl Albrecht was 10th at $27 billion

Karl Albrecht

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Five top international stock investors

If you want to make a success of your investments, you would be well advised to follow the experts.  Here we look at the strategies of five legendary investors.

Peter Lynch
Age: 61

While Peter Lynch was in charge of Fidelity’s Magellan fund – between 1977 and 1990 – it posted an average annual return of 29%. No fund manager in history has ever run a fund of its size (by the end of the period it was worth $14bn) so successfully for such a long time. He puts this achievement down to a few simple things, mainly the skill of finding investment opportunities in areas you are already familiar with. He made a point, for example, of looking closely at stocks for which he or his family had “positive personal experiences as consumers”, says Peter Temple in the FT. He also looked for the simplest of businesses to invest in, famously suggesting that one should, “Go for a business that any idiot can run – because, sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it.”

Having spotted a possible company, Lynch looks at three criteria: profitability, price, and whether or not it has a good business model. He likes companies with strong assets backing them and forward p/e ratios well below forecast earnings per share. He prefers firms with strong growth potential, but at the same time is wary of those with unsustainable growth rates. “As a rule of thumb, he generally looked for earnings growth of between 15% and 30%,” says Debiprasad Nayak in The Economic Times Online. To Lynch, however, financial fundamentals were a secondary thing to look at. First, he liked  to understand the company thoroughly. He visited shopping malls to see how shops were doing, check which brands were selling and at what kind of prices. Then he looked at the balance sheet.

Lynch’s book on investing, One Up On Wall Street, was published in 1989.But that doesn’t diminish its relevance today. The book introduces the idea of “ten-baggers”, the Holy Grail of investing, says Luke Johnson in The Sunday Telegraph. Ten-baggers are shares that investors can make ten times their money on within about five years. Finding these meant that, on the whole, Lynch avoided investing in large, well-established businesses and opted for less well-known ones or turnaround stories. He was also a contrarian investor – like many other great investors, he sought out stocks that everyone else was ignoring.

One final piece of Lynch advice to retail investors. You should think of your stocks as you would your children: you have limited time, so you can’t keep an eye on too many of them at once. Lynch thinks that five stocks is enough for most of us to keep track of.

Eddie Lampert: the next Warren Buffett?

Eddie Lampert takes security seriously. He was kidnapped at gunpoint as he left work in 2003 and held hostage for two days. However, his mental resourcefulness is such that he managed to talk his way out of trouble and be back at his desk just two days later. But there’s more to Lampert than resilience alone: he’s currently being touted as the new Warren Buffett.

His private investment fund, ESL Investments, which takes its name from his initials, has grown from $28m in 1988 to a mammoth $9bn today, returning an average 29% a year – compared to the 25% a year Berkshire Hathaway has made since Buffett took over in 1965 (though over a much longer period). One huge success for Lampert has been his 53% stake in Kmart. Once bankrupt, the retail giant has now merged with Sears and is a veritable cash cow, throwing off more than it can use in the business. It has $3bn in hand.

Lampert has always had powerful mentors, working with the likes of Robin Rubin, former boss of Goldman Sachs, and economics Nobel winner James Tobin at Yale. The person who first sparked his interest in investing, though, was his grandmother, who would read the ten-year-old Eddie Lampert stock quotes from the paper. He has also paid close attention to Warren Buffett, dissecting his reasons for making each investment. Lampert tends to go for mature, easy-to-understand businesses with strong cash flows, long-term returns being much more important than short-term bumps and rises (sound familiar?). He is also starting to turn minority stakes into larger plays where he has the majority and can control a firm – as he did with Kmart. “There is nothing Lampert likes to control more than how money is spent,” says BusinessWeek. Every dollar must earn as much as possible, and his companies will often use cash to buy back shares rather than boost capital spending.

But for all these similarities, “Lampert is no Buffett clone”.He is more assertive with management, for one thing, and is more willing to target poorly run companies as they produce greater returns when turned around. Unsurprisingly, he can be tough at ESL too, where, with just 15 employees, “he runs a tight ship”. Former workers talk about his understanding of risk, and his “uncanny ability to see how the pieces of an investment fit together”.

Warren Buffet
Fortune: $40bn

If, at its inception in 1954, an investor had placed $10,000 in Sir John Templeton’s flagship Templeton Growth fund, it would now be worth nearly $7m, which is nice, and qualifies him as an investing guru (the same money in an S&P tracker would have returned you $500,000). But if, 11 years later, you had put the same $10,000 into Berkshire Hathaway – just after Warren Buffett took it over – you would now be sitting on a nest egg of over $50m.

Buffett is a patient investor and a cautious one. He ignored the tech-bubble entirely, and still doesn’t hold a single tech or internet stock, not even Microsoft. He would, he says, bet it will do well, but as he points out, why should he “have to bet”? He likes stocks he can “see”, and therefore understand, such as Coca-Cola: he believes it’s “much easier to predict the relative strength that Coke will have in the soft-drink world than Microsoft will in the software world”.

Unlike Templeton, he seems to think that he can still find value in the American market – earlier this year, for example, he bought PacifiCorp from Scottish Power, in what is seen as his new investment technique – to ‘“buy entire companies, rather than simply taking a stake”, says SmartMoney. In April, he also bought a significant stake in Anheuser-Busch, the world’s largest brewer and the maker of Budweiser beer. Buffett’s reputation goes before him – as soon as his purchase was announced, the share price went up 6%.

As well as being able to see his stocks, Buffett likes to know them intimately.He once likened over-diversifying a portfolio to having a harem of 40 women – “you never get to know any of them very well”. His stocks are more like friends: he knows them well and holds onto them for the long term, or as long as they pass his growth tests without becoming over-priced. “The key, he says, is to think of yourselfas part-owner of the business,” says Graham Searjeant in The Times.

He is very sceptical about the future of the dollar – last year, he bet $21bn against the dollar. With his other currency plays, this earned him $2.6bn last year – but with the dollar’s recent rally, he has been hit, and could have lost “as much as $1bn”, says SmartMoney. But the world’s second-richest man and best-known investment guru is “undeterred and continues to position Berkshire Hathaway, his investment company, for dollar weakness”, say Patrick Hosking and Gabriel Rozenberg in The Times. Still, he can’t find much to invest in at all, be it a dollar asset or not. At Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM in May, he said, “We’d love to have one [an acquisition] in the $5bn to$10bn range. At the moment, we’ve got more money than brains, and we hope to do something about that.”

Benjamin Graham
1894-1976

From 1936 to 1956, Benjamin Graham had a “remarkable record as a stock picker”, say Pablo Galarza and Stephen Gandel in Money. Over the 20-year period, his mutual fund had a compounded average return of at least 14.7%, compared to 12% for the overall market. That may not sound like much of a difference, but, as Galarza and Gandel point out, a $10,000 investment in Graham’s fund would have earned roughly $60,000 more than the average in the space of two decades.

So how did he know which stocks to pick? He was the ultimate valueinvestor. His net current asset value (NCAV) approach is “relatively unknown to individual investors”, says Harry Domash’s Winning Investing, but it was clearly successful for him. It is a system that calls for buying stocks trading below their calculated value. Instead of using the more usual book value (assets minus liabilities), Graham wanted to know what the company would be worth if it were liquidated tomorrow. In order to work this out, he would only include current assets (ie, cash, inventories and accounts receivable), while ignoring long-term assets, such as buildings and patents. He would delete from this both long and short-term liabilities, giving him the NCAV. His aim was to find and buy companies trading at two-thirds or less of their net current asset value.

He insisted on such a heavy discount because he believed that you needed a margin of safety – “a price so low that you can make money even if some part of your analysis turns out to be wrong”, say Galarza and Gandel. This gave him leeway to carry out less research than many of his colleagues, as a lot of it would be redundant if the shares were cheap enough. For example, if a company has current assets worth $12 per share and no debt, you would have a nice margin of safety if you bought its shares at $7, however dodgy its business.

“A true Graham follower has to be resigned to buying companies that the rest of the market think are lousy,” say Galarza and Gandel. Like Templeton and Lynch, he focused on companies the rest of the market were ignoring, so that he could pick them up cheaply while knowing that the real value was there to back up the investment, even if the company went bust. Graham discovered the hard way that this was a good investment strategy. One of his early picks was Savold Tire, which he bought on its first day of trading – making an impressive 250% in a short period of time. But instead of reaping his profit, he held onto the stock. Six months later, corporate fraud was exposed at the firm and its shares became totally worthless. His response was his NCAV strategy,  designed to ensure that even if companies went into receivership, there would still be money left for investors.

Sir John Templeto
Age: 92
Fortune: estimated at over $1bn

He may be 92 years old and have sold his family of mutual funds (for $913m, in 1992), but that doesn’t mean Sir John Templeton doesn’t still knowa thing or two about investing. Described as “arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century” in Money magazine, he continues to keep an active eye on what’s happening in the markets. Right now, that’s not something he finds very comforting: in recent years he has been very worried about the quality of investments in the market and he has repeatedly warned that the US housing boom is more of a bubble, and that it will soon burst.

Nowadays, Templeton works full-time as a philanthropist; donating about $40m a year to “discovering how religion can influence the physical world”, says Lyford Cay in Financial Intelligence Report. However, he remains dedicated to his first vocation: “the study of investments”, says Cay. And thanks to his close study of the markets, his “timing has been impeccable”.Templeton took short positions in dotcom and tech stocks at the very height of the 1990s boom – and managed to make himself another fortune in the process.

So how does he choose which stocks are going to make him money? Templeton’s first rule is to do the opposite of the crowd. He moved to the Bahamas 32 years ago, and found that not being in the middle of the market buzz meant that he didn’t accidentally follow everyone else’s investment ideas.

Unpopular stocks aren’t necessarily bad stocks, says Templeton; they may just be unfashionable, and therefore cheap (unlike the dotcoms in 1999). Finding this kind of value is his main criteria. By looking at companies’ market capitalisation (share price times number of shares in issue) and then calculating the intrinsic value (what he believes the company’s assets and the market are really worth), he spots ones that are trading too cheaply. As Templeton’s foundation website points out, “standard stock-buying advice is ‘buy low, sell high’”. But he followed the advice to the extreme – picking companies, industries and even nations that were at rock bottom levels, or “points of maximum pessimism”, as he puts it.

Templeton’s next step was to assess the risk. Stocks might be at bargain prices, but the risk that “somebody might do something stupid” may be too high, he told Cay. Over the years, his combined interest in value and risk has lead him to invest all over the world – if he were to make one criticism of Warren Buffett, it would be that he is “small-sighted. If he had spent more time in foreign nations, he would be better off,” he told Cay. Templeton, on the other hand, loves to invest abroad. At present, for its combination of good value and low risk, Templeton’s favourite country is South Korea – but he is also looking around in China, Russia and Canada.

His advice to smaller investors is to take the same approach. “Invest in a well-managed mutual fund focusing on nations and industries where share prices are not so high,” he told SmartMoney. One place that doesn’t currently fit the bill? The US. Indeed, Templeton told Cay that he doesn’t “remember a time when you had to search so diligently to find anything that was a bargain” in America.

What the gurus might buy now

Peter Lynch
If you followed Peter Lynch’s strategy, what might you invest in now?In America, the answer might be debt-collection firm Portfolio Recovery Associates (NASDAQ: PRAA), says the Motley Fool website. In the UK, it might be recruitment company Northern Recruitment (LSE: NRG), saysPeter Temple in the FT. And in China, it might be Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co (NYSE: SHI), one of China’s largest producers of ethylene, according to a stock screening done by Validea.com.

Warren Buffett
Buffett has recently bought a “significant” stake in Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD), the world’s largest brewer, and the price has risen as a result. But given that he has – as ever – invested for the very long term, the shares may still be worth a look. Otherwise, Validea.com’s screens suggest that those using his investment strategy would like Factset Research Systems (NYSE: FDS), which provides global financial information, as well as insurance brokerage firm, Hilb, Rogal & Hobbs Co (NYSE: HRH).

Benjamin Graham
Graham’s much-followed techniques would suggest that Cooper Tire & Rubber (NYSE: CTB), which designs and makes tyres, would have caught his eye, as would the car manufacturer Nissan (NASDAQ: NSANY), says the Motley Fool website. The stock screen on Validea.com suggests that Graham might have considered buying into the steel boom via Mittal Steel (NYSE: MT).

Sir John Templeton
Templeton recently recommended the Korean car manufacturer Kia Motors to Lyford Cay in the Financial Intelligence Report as one day being bigger than General Motors, so we know that he likes that, at least. Otherwise, Fortune magazine recently followed his strategy and identified Vodafone Group (LSE: VOD), the world’s number-two wireless phone company, as suiting his criteria. He himself suggested that an investment fund he likes is the Matthews Asia-Pacific fund, which invests more broadly across Asia than most of the funds that focus on that region, says SmartMoney.

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